Worked scenario
Every style sells out of eights and dies in elevens
A footwear shop can sell most of a style and still lose money on it, because what remains is a size nobody in that locality wears.
3 min read
Footwear is bought in ratio packs. The ratio is the supplier's view of a national average, and no individual shop serves a national average.
The residue
A style sells seventy percent through and stops, because what is left is the sizes this locality does not buy. Those pairs then sit through a markdown cycle and are sold at or below cost, which is where the style's margin actually went.
The curve is knowable
Every shop already generates the data — each sale carries a size. Very few aggregate it, so buying continues against the supplier's ratio rather than the shop's own history.
Two seasons of size-level sales is enough to negotiate a different ratio or to buy top-ups in the sizes that move.
Broken sizes have a clock
A style with gaps in the run stops selling well before it stops existing. Identifying it early enough to clear it as a set, rather than discovering it at season end as singles, is worth more than the markdown percentage.
What changes
- Sales recorded by size, not only by style
- The store's own size curve built from its own history
- Reorders weighted to sizes that actually sell there
- Broken-size stock identified while it can still be cleared
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